Bitcoin on the Brink- Can it Top $70,000 by April?

The year 2024 has kicked off with quite a bang for Bitcoin, with the top cryptocurrency having a 35% hike to exceed the $52,000 mark in just three weeks. This bullish momentum has led to speculation about its future price course, particularly with the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event approaching in mid-April.

A 20% Chance of Reaching New Heights

According to data from Lyra Finance, a decentralized options marketplace, there’s a 20% chance that Bitcoin could hit a fresh all-time high above $70,000 by April 26th. This figure, while seemingly low, might surprise some, considering Bitcoin’s recent rally and strong bullish sentiment.

Why the Low Probability?

While several factors point towards further gains, some experts remain cautious. Despite the recent rise, there is an underlying awareness of potential hurdles. For instance, despite the overall bullishness, options traders have not excessively placed bets on a record-breaking move above $70,000.

This cautious approach might stem from the desire to avoid getting caught off guard by unexpected market shifts. Bitcoin’s price movements are notoriously volatile, and even the strongest predictions can be derailed by unforeseen events.

Bullish Factors Driving Optimism

Several factors are contributing to the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin:

  • Supportive fiscal policy- The current US fiscal policy, which is considered relatively loose compared to past years, is seen as a positive factor for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin Halving– The upcoming halving event, scheduled for mid-April, is expected to reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, possibly leading to increased scarcity and higher prices.
  • Declining recession worries- The global recession probability has fallen to its lowest level since December 2021, leading to an increase in risk appetite, which may also positively impact Bitcoin.
  • Institutional buying– Increased institutional investment, particularly from US players, is driving buying pressure and lending legitimacy to Bitcoin as a mainstream asset.

Institutional Investors Driving the Rally

Recent data suggests that American institutional investors are playing a significant role in Bitcoin’s current rally. This is evident in:

  • Coinbase Premium Index- The positive values of this index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance, indicate an increase in buying activity on Coinbase, a platform predominantly used by US institutions.
  • Analysis of Trading Session Returns- Analysis shows that Bitcoin experiences its most positive returns during American trading hours, a factor that further strengthens the notion of US-based institutional influence.

The Evolving Landscape

The increasing involvement of institutional investors marks a significant shift in the cryptocurrency market. Their presence not only validates Bitcoin’s position as a mainstream asset but also influences its price movements, particularly during US trading hours.

As Bitcoin continues its upward climb and the market matures, it is clear that institutional participation will play a vital role in shaping its future. Whether or not it reaches a price above $70,000 by April remains to be seen. However, one thing that can be said with certainty is that the landscape of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market is continuously evolving, whereby the institutional players are becoming increasingly central figures.

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